 With just 2 weeks to go, could American voters elect Barack Obama, not by a landslide, but an avalanche?
National tracking and state polls show a trend towards Obama. He's picking up voters in all age groups and in all sectors of society. But what if this trend hasn't yet peaked. What if it has only just begun? Could he really get 490 Electoral Votes?
Senator Obama's 2008 election campaign has the hallmarks of becoming a snowball, gathering speed, size and momentum with each passing day. Not only do the polls show that more and more voters are turning to the democratic ticket, but the negative campaigning of McCain/Palin seem to be backfiring.  Momentum going Obama's Way Tracking polls show Obama opening up a lead of up to 10 points. Practically all polls show that the Obama/Biden ticket came out on top in the The Presidential and Vice Presidential debate, with his favourability increasing amongst crucial independents. Obama raised a record $150m in September . This is a reflection not just of his fund raising capacity, but his ability to inspire millions of Americans to invest in securing a president they believe in. The additional finance will enable him to go on the offensive in states that even a few weeks ago, he couldn't have had a hope of winning. McCain, meanwhile, is playing a desperate defense, pulling out of states that Bush won in 2004 to concentrate on clinging to states that he shouldn't even be worrying about. Endorsements  Colin Powell - October Surprise #11? In late Sept, a record 61 US Nobel Prize winners wrote an open letter to the American people urging them to vote Barack Obama. The laureates , all experts in the fields of physics, chemistry and medicine said "We especially applaud his emphasis during the campaign on the power of science and technology to enhance our nation’s competitiveness... Senator Obama understands that Presidential leadership and federal investments in science and technology are crucial elements in successful governance of the world’s leading country." Newspapers are coming out strongly in favour of Obama. And it's not all the "media elite" as Sarah Palin like to call them. Some Bush supporting papers and traditional Republican papers have switched sides , many of them citing that Palin herself is not ready to be president. The papers include Detroit Free Press, Buffalo News, Cleveland's Plain Dealer, Palm Beach (Fla.) Post, New York's Daily News, Miami Herald, Philadelphia Inquirer, Portland's The Oregonian, Denver Post, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Salt Lake Tribune, Kansas City Star, and Chicago Sun-Times. Obama currently leads newspaper endorsements by 105:33  Chris Buckley Endorses Obama Former White House press secretary Scott McClellan , said on Thursday that he's voting for Obama, explaining "From the very beginning I have said I am going to support the candidate that has the best chance for changing the way Washington works and getting things done and I will be voting for Barack Obama,"
And when the world's richest man, Warren Buffet, Google CEO Eric Schmitt and London's Conservative major Boris Johnson also back Obama, it gets a little hard to see how allegations of the democrat being a socialist can stick.
The Inequality EffectRepublicans aren't exactly known for their fluffy socialist tendencies, preferring an economic system that favours meritocracy - that people gain wealth on their merits, rather than on equality. Whilst there is some validity in a meritocratic society, it is essentially flawed on the basis that for society as a whole (as opposed to individuals) to succeed, meritocracy depends on equality of opportunity. This is clearly lacking. As a result, societies under a Republican regime become more unequal. Prominent Republican David Frum acknowledged that less equal places in the USA tend to vote Democrat. A study by Jim Manzi at the National Review backs this up. This works against the Republican party in that they create a less equal society that will ultimately end up voting them out of power in favour of the Democrats. The Democrats then restore some equality to society, creating the conditions for the Republican party to return to power - usually by a landslide. Shifting DemographicsYoung voters and those without landlines are not fully accounted for in many polls and could add to the swing for Obama. The primarys saw a huge increase in young voter turnout and Obama's ability to engage with young voters , with voter registration drives , use of technology and a commanding web presence is giving him an edge in states where the more mature population are traditionally Republican. Gallup polls show that younger people in the 18-29 age range have much greater confidence in Obama's ability to lead the country than in his opponent.  Young People Have Confidence in Obama
Across all age groups, there is a relentless swing towards Obama, as shown in this 5 week Gallup tracking poll.
 Obama Gaining Across All Ages Already, there are signs that Blacks in southern states are coming out to vote early. This could make a big difference in traditional red states, where McCain isn't doing as well as might be expected - especially when he has a gun-toting pro-life Christian on the ticket.  The Hispanic Press is Going Obama Many Hispanics view McCain favourably because of his quite liberal views on immigration, but recently, they have been turning away. A Gallup poll in July showed that, whilst many Hispanic voters would have preferred Hillary Clinton, they are backing Obama 2:1. This week, Spanish language newspapers El Diario/La Prensa in NYC and La Opinión in Los Angeles, published an editorial endorsing Obama for president.  Across the board, Hispanic voters prefer Obama
Amongst white voters , lingering concerns about Obama's skin colour are being over-ridden by concerns about the economy and the need for a president that can steer the ship. In western Pennsylvania, one of the roughest turfs in America one Obama canvasser reported that at one doorstep, the resident told her "we're voting for the nigger" . Also, according to a Zogby poll , McCain is tied amongst NASCAR fans. If McCain can't win voters here, he's doomed. Seems like racism is a luxury in these hard economic times.  Election Preferences by Race Politics of Division vs Politics of InclusionIn 2004, GWB ran a pretty cynical campaign against John Kerry. This year's Republican ticket seems to be even more vitriolic and partisan. The cat-calls at the stump, the TV ads and Robocalls have all been pretty well documented elsewhere. What is striking about 2008 is the divisive nature of McCain's campaign, which many experts feel is not reflective of the man himself. The other problem McCain has is that he can't control the lunatics that come out on the fringes of the campaign. People like Michele Bachmann.
Michele Bachmann's recent tirade on HardTalk hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Calling for a media 'witch-hunt' into Anti-American values in Washington, she looked and sounded like a right crazy bastard, whose presence in the House is one of the most perplexing facets of American politics. In the couple of days after her TV appearance, her opponent in the MN-06 race El Tinklenberg , raised around $500,000 in campaign donations. Looks like Rovian style divide and conquer tactics aren't working anymore. He's also turned a 10 point deficit into a three point lead in the polls.
On Tuesday 21st, the head of a New Mexico Republican women's group called Barack Obama a "Muslim socialist," stating that "Muslims are our enemies." Marcia Stirman , the head of the Republican Women of Otero County, who will be asked to step down, wrote in the Alamogordo Daily News that she believes "Muslims are our enemies." Stirman told The Associated Press in an interview: "I don't trust them at all. They've sworn across the world that they are our enemies. Why we're trying to elect one is beside me."
According to the Pentagon, there are 3,400 Muslims serving in the US military. Consider how their friends, family and fellow service men and women are going to feel about being labelled Anti-American. Whilst no accurate figures are available, more estimates say there are up to 7 million Muslims in the USA. That's a whole lot of people who will be alienated by this venomous rhetoric and will be voting Obama. All of this divisive crap from low-grade Republicans across the US is hurting the brand and the McCain/Palin ticket in all sections of scoiety.
Time for ChangeThis election shares many similarities with the UK General Election of 1997 . Tired of 18 years of Conservative Party rule, political infighting, smear campaigns, dirty tactics and sleaze, the British electorate voted overwhelmingly for change. Tony Blair's Labour Party swept to victory with an enormous majority of 418:165 seats - the biggest parliamentary majority since 1931.
What was evident at the time was that people wanted change. No-one deluded themselves that Tony Blair and the Labour Party were going to be perfect (they weren't) but the prevailing public view was "anything but the Conservatives"
Interestingly, the election was so decisive, not because of a huge increase in Labour votes - from 11.5m to 13.5m - but because many Conservatives stayed at home to 14.1m - 9.6m. Could 'stay at home' Republicans be a deciding factor in an Obama Avalanche? Pulling OutThe McCain campaign has, in the last few day, announced that it is pulling out of the race for Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin (worth a total of 35 electoral votes). It's also toning down it's investment in Pennysylvania. Instead, it is focusing on winning "swing" states of Florida, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, all of which voted Bush in both 2000 and 2004 (Florida being, of course subject to the Al Gore /Bush scandal in 2000). The 10 Battleground StatesRecent polling, if it's accurate, in the big 10 battleground states around the Mid West makes alarming reading for the McCain camp. 10 points down in Indiana, 19 down in Minnesota and 12 down in Ohio. Down in Indiana? If this is really the case, then McCain is toast. South East CoastIn Virginia, recent comments about north Virginia being Anti American will likely effectively wipe McCain support off the map in that part of the region. Even if south virginians vote McCain, any benefit may be annulled by lost votes elsewhere.
South Carolina - polls show McCain strong, but in the primary season, Barack won 295,000 votes to McCain's 143,000. The actual population is over 4 million of whom less than 1 million voted, so the primary was just a drop in the ocean. But consider that SC has a 30% black population and this supposedly safe state could get interesting. Plus Obama's push to get new voters registered may even put South Carolina on the map. Ominously, in Georgia , one poll puts Obama only 2 points behind - in a state that Bush won 17 points 4 years ago. In Louisiana the Bush response to Katrina and Ike is still fresh in the mind of voters. With a large impoverished and black community, the state is more of a bellweather state than it is credited for, having voted for Clinton in 92 and 96 and in favour of every president since 1972.
HighlandsThe 6 Highlands states, with their 50 EVs could be where the election is sealed. With the exception of Oklahoma, they all tend to reflect the national trend. If what we're seeing in Virginia is repeated across these states, then Obama is on for 400 EVs. Easily.
 The Highland States Could be the Big Swing Big Blue Sky?So could there be a surprise in stall in the mountain states of Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming? With the exception of Montana voting Clinton in 92, all 5 states have voted Republican in every election since 1968. However, in 64, all five voted with 39 other states in a landslide for Democrat Lyndon. B. Johnson. Could history be about to repeat itself?
The 3 hour time difference between East and West coasts could prove a significant factor in the 08 race. If early indications show Virginia and North Carolina turning Blue, then Mountain state conservatives could stay at home because they feel their state's 4 or 5 Electoral College votes won't make a difference.
Traditional Red states like Montana (where Obama won the primary and who didn't vote McCain for Primary) don't get polled very often. So when we see that the Montana State University has run a poll showing Obama 4 points ahead, we're not sure if it's an out lier or a true reflection. Given how other red states like Virginia and North Carolina are faring are we missing something going on elsewhere?
Raising Arizona?There is even the possibility of McCain's own state of Arizona turning to Obama. This isn't as preposterous as it sounds. On Thursday, Barry Goldwater's grand-daughter and relatives announced in the Huffington Post , that they would be voting Obama/Biden. She explained: "Being Barry Goldwater's granddaughter and living in Arizona, one would assume that I would be voting for our state's senator, John McCain. I am still struck by certain 'dyed in the wool' Republicans who are on the fence this election, as it seems like a no-brainer to me.
Myself, along with my siblings and a few cousins, will not be supporting the Republican presidential candidates this year. We believe strongly in what our grandfather stood for: honesty, integrity, and personal freedom, free from political maneuvering and fear tactics... We reject the constant intrusion into our personal lives, along with other crucial policy issues of the McCain/Palin ticket.
"The McCain/Palin plan is to appear diverse and inclusive, using women and minorities to push an agenda that makes us all financially vulnerable, fearful, and less safe... Nothing about the Republican ticket offers the hope America needs to regain it's standing in the world, that's why we're going to support Barack Obama. I think that Obama has shown his ability and integrity."
All of 8 Arizona's 8 members of congress (4 dems, 4 rep) Congress voted against the bailout that McCain suspended his campaign to create. There mabe a shift in Arizona, with higly respected Republicans giving permission to other republicans to look carefully at the two tickets and make a decision based on sense, rather than traditional loyalties. Exploding Elephants Is the Republican Party Cratering? As shown above, a number of prominent conservatives are coming out in criticism McCain and citing Palin's unreadiness to be president as major concerns. That and the desperately partisan nature of some Republican members looks likely to tear the party apart. Chris Buckley said that the reaction to endorsement for Obama from within the GOP startled even him: “I was really quite amazed by the reaction, and I think it shows just how bloody calcified the political discourse has become, and tribalist, and snarling,” he told NY Magazine . “I want to say that it’s a tempest in a teapot, but there seems to be something going on here, and maybe this has accidentally tapped into it.” UPDATE: 24th October 2pm Former Republican Governor of Massachusetts and Reagan's US attorney William Weld stated he is voting for Obama, saying "Senator Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who will transform our politics and restore America's standing in the world. We need a president who will lead based on our common values and Senator Obama demonstrates an ability to unite and inspire. Throughout this campaign I've watched his steady leadership through trying times and I'm confident he is the best candidate to move our country forward" Arne Carlson , a former Republican governor in the crucial bellweather state of Minnesota, has also endorsed Barack Obama, citing how his stances on the Iraq war, the economy and green energy goals won him over. "Regardless of our party, regardless of our partisan inclinations, there is no interest more compelling than the interest in the well-being of the United States," In The Week, former Bush speechwriter David Frum wrote of McCain’s travails in a way that seemed to take defeat for granted and warned the GOP faces a long road back. “That’s not a failure of campaign tactics. It’s not even a failure of strategy. It’s a failure of the Republican Party and conservative movement to adapt to the times.” Prediction God?So, with two weeks to go till polling day, could Obama really get over 490 EV's. Two weeks is an eternity in politics and technicaly, anything can happen. However, practically every event so far - from the economic crisis to Colin Powell's endorsement - has favoured the democratic ticket, and there's no reason to suggest that future events won't reinforce this trend. What if McCain has a health scare live on stage or national TV, or if the electorate finally realises that Sarah Palin is totally incompetent, or a popular Republican senator or governor endorses Obama? What if the hostile antics of some McCain/Palin supporters further alienates the moderates and independents?
As of 23rd October, Electoral Vote are saying 337:171 with 30 tied. FiveThirtyEight reckon on 354:184, a ten EV swing to Obama in the last 3 days. So, while the experts currently agree on an Obama victory in Nov 4th, they're not going all out.  Obama 491 vs 47 McCain
Well, if I'm wrong, I'll look like a dick. But if I'm right... Prediction God.
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