Heads, you lose. Tails, you lose
Tuesday, 14 October 2008

More mixed messages from the McCain camp about tomorrows final debate. Will John McCain cave in to his supporters and finally say it to Obama's face?

Today, McCain suggested that he was going to "take the gloves off" and have it out with Obama about his associations with Bill Ayers.  However in an interview with Dana Base on CNN, he said "Very frankly, Dana, I don't give a damn about an old unrepentant terrorist."  So what's going to happen?

John McCain
McCain finally realises he picked a dog for a running mate
This is an argument that McCain can't win - a certain case of damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Let's say McCain does raise the spectre of Ayers dodgy past in the debate.  It's safe to assume that there is no way Obama is going to go into that debate without having already memorised a ready-made knock down speech. 

He will, of course, decry Ayers actions as a young man.  But he should then celebrate his achievements as a respected professor. Obama should also point out that, if it is unforgivable to associate with a former radical, then the republican Annenberg Foundation (who funded both Ayers and John McCain's campaign) and several thousand citizens and students of Chicago must also have "palled about with terrorists".

Obama could then make the quite legitimate point that the if the America wants to carry on down the road of hate, violence, suspicion, mistrust and fear, then they just need to elect McCain. To crystalise the point, Obama can reference the recent death threats at Palin/McCain stump speeches, the Keating 5 and Troopergate.

Image
The Base wants McCain needs to get nasty.
McCain will look like an idiot for having banged the wrong drum for the past 3 weeks, whist the economy was, in his word, cratering.

But if McCain doesn't raise the issue, then the Base will get angry with him for being a pussy.  They've not taken too kindly to his softening the tone in the last week.  Obama's best trick would be to raise the issue himself and neutralise McCain before he can start.

McCain needs both the core Republican voters and the independents to have a shot at the White House.  The campaign he's been running has energised the Base, who seem to be sticking with him because the lipstick wearing pit-bull throws them raw meat every now and then.  However, it has also driven away the independents.  He can't get the independents back without alienating the Base.  

As it is, he risks losing both.  The Base may not bother turning up to vote for him, or may cast a protest vote for an independent - as did longtime republican and founder of Red State Joshua Trevino

McCain has dug his own grave.  All that's left is to sit back and watch him jump in.  Sad that his career should end like this.



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